I’m sure many of you have seen this video, but even if you have, it’s worth a second look:
What does all this mean… about movies… screenwriting… entertainment?
Thanks to my teaching colleague Steven Neigher for sending me the link and reminding me about this mind-blowing video.
Even though this was posted yesterday morning, I had to reply to it.
The study of the future has fascinated me ever since I worked at the National Security Agency in 1979. At that time, I learned how to conduct simple keyword searches on a Cray Super Computer. My personal laptop almost has the same search capability today. There were other next-next generation technologies that we also used that are only now beginning to see the light of day.
Then I met a man named Harry Dent, a futurist who wrote the book The Great Boom Ahead. From Wikipedia:
The basis of Dent's research is the highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family's formation pattern: minimal spending as young adults, increased spending while rearing children, peaking their spending as their children leave home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.
While his economic predictions have been highly criticized, his “Hockey Stick” approach to analyzing data is remarkably correct. The theory is that once a new technology (in the broad sense of the word) catches on, it explodes in use exponentially before reaching a peak where 98 – 99 percent of the population that would use that technology is using it.
His classic example is the use of steel belted radial tires. It took about seven years to catch on but then in the space of less than two years, nearly 90 percent of the population was driving on steel belted radials. The remaining 10 percent were mostly drivers who either drove classic cars or simply weren’t driving enough to warrant replacing the tires.
So how can this be applied to movies, screenwriting and entertainment?
The first thing I do is look at the order in which entertainment is produced: Idea or concept, script, production and distribution.
Ideas and the propagation of ideas are highly affected by new technologies. So we as writers need to be in tune with how society is changing. We need to attempt to understand the societies that will influence future world views and how that should influence storytelling. And we need to be aware of new technologies and why they are developed.
I think script writing is mostly where it will remain, with the exception of formatting. We need to be aware of how formatting will change because of new technologies. Will we soon use BCG to indicate Begin Computer Graphics when as writers we envision the production changing to CGI from live action? Will the standard for scripted material reflect internet production values or animation? Just a couple of things we need to watch.
Production and Distribution will be the two areas where new technologies will have the most impact; from the use of digital cameras and CGI to internet and cell phone distribution channels. Will smaller and smaller high quality digital recorders mean there will be more POV shots? Will production and acquisition of releases for the people who show up in the background shots (since we no longer need to close off a whole street to get a shop of two actors walking) become the priciest part of production? What new distribution channels will appear?
The future is here, and we need to embrace it or perish.
As I was writing this, a friend sent me this link on Sixth Sense Technology: http://www.wimp.com/sixthtechnology/
Wow.
Tom, that's a great post. And thanks for the link to the Sixth Sense Technology. Double your "Wow!"