Jason Scoggins hits the big time today on Deadline Hollywood as Nikki passes along some of Jason’s initial analysis of spec script sales in 2009:
Here are some talking points for this weekend’s holiday parties. Jason Scoggins, a partner at the literary management and production company Protocol, has compiled what he readily admits is a “terribly unscientific” but which I find very interesting compilation of the 2009 feature film spec script market based on information culled from public and non-public sources. The numbers do not include pitch sales or the film rights to underlying material. He found that:• 436 spec scripts came out in 2009, of which 72 sold (17%).
• 373 specs went out wide in 2009, of which 19 sold (5%). Of those 19, only 3 sold after April 30th, out of 178 attempts during the period (1.7%).
• As for spec sals by genre, comedies led with 32% of sales, thrillers 29%, action adventures 21%, while dramas and sci-fi/fantasies tied with 10%.
Go read the rest of Nikki’s post for more. I’ve been in discussions with Jason where I’ll be handling part of the 2009 spec script postmortem here on GITS. Look for that the first week of January 2010.
H/T to Josh James for the link
UPDATE: For a much more comprehensive analysis, go to Jason’s website Life on the Bubble here.
373 specs went out wide in 2009.
What does "went out wide" mean?
thanks,
brian
Going out wide means that a script gets sent out to a majority or all potential buyers. Typically a script's reps will maneuver a spec script to different producers, one for each studio, hopefully producers with a good track record and clout for that studio. Occasionally a script will go out with just one producer attached for the whole town, but that's not the norm. But the value of a script going out wide is not only to maximize the number of potential buyers, but also generate heat: "The script is out everywhere!"
I was just talking yesterday with my friend Tom Benedek (he wrote the movie Cocoon) about how even getting a spec script to make the 'cut' to go out wide is getting tougher and tougher. I'm only guessing, but I think it's fair to say that a decade ago, up to a thousand specs went out to buyers per year. Now much less. Most of that is due, I think, to reps not wanting to send out inferior scripts, which is often what readers complain about — How could CAA / ICM / fill-in-the-blank send out this piece of crap.
Also another trend: More and more specs go out with major attachments (i.e., actor, director) to give the project that much more clout to potential buyers.
Well since the spec market, looks like a tough one long term, just by those numbers. I think as a new writer it might not be that bad, if your working now on that spec script.
Whether its 1-5 years before the spec market starts getting life again,its really a great time to dig deep into that spec your doing now, get feedback and network, you never know when the iron will get hot again.
@305Writer: There were 87 specs that sold last year, so definitely down with 72 this year. But the spec market runs in cycles. I don't think this is indicative of a permanent trend downward.
Just a question regarding readers, Scott: is it possible that the Hollywood community has become too SPECIFIC about what it wants? In other words, if such and such plot point doesn't occur before such and such page, is the script immediately dismissed out of hand?
I could be wrong, of course, and am willing to be told so, but I sometimes feel that the rules for screenwriting have become as rigid as those for haiku poems.
And quite possibly not to the benefit of anyone.
@domremy03: Do you mind if I take that up as an Open Forum question? Because I suspect that this may be common perception. I'll pose it to some of my script reader connections to get their reactions. Sound like a plan?
Hi Scott,
Thanks for the great information. I was hoping you could please clarify something:
You said that "going out wide" means that the spec scripts are sent out everywhere. However if that only represented 19 sales (out of 436 total specs), does that mean that the 63 scripts (436-373=63) that weren't sent out wide resulted in 53 sales (72-19=53)?
That would seem to indicate that going out wide is not ones best chance for selling a spec… which is very counter-intuitive.
Am I misunderstanding the stats?
The scripts that didn't go out wide but sold are almost all deals that were made as a preemptive buy before other studios got involved. Perhaps a project developed in-house by a production company that has an overall deal with a studio. Or a project with an actor attached who has been courted by a studio, reps go that studio first and directly.
Some times, reps will slip a script to a studio for an unofficial read to gauge their interest, and based on that agree to give that studio a first look.
The choice to go to a few or one buyer vs. going wide is decided by reps based upon the material, the mood in the town, the time of year, what's hot at the box office just then, what studios might need what genre for their slate, etc. An inexact science.
Thanks for the lightning fast response Scott! That clears things up. Much appreciated.
By all means, Scott, feel free to use my post as an Open Forum question. My pleasure.