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Patrick Goldstein: "Why does Hollywood’s heat of the summer box office feel so ice cold?"

So when confronted by a dismal Memorial Day weekend at the box office, last week there was this:

“There very well could be some burnout with moviegoers, who are looking for something new and fresh,” a top studio exec lamented Tuesday.

The phenomenon has a name: “sequelitis.” But then the very next day, we had this:

Summer 2010 always looked soft from a distance. Why? Because of a lack of sequels [emphasis added]. No Spider-Man, Batman, Transformers, Bourne, or Harry Potter. But Pixar and The Karate Kid and Adam Sandler and Tom Cruise and Twilight and Angelina Jolie and a reboot of Predator and hopeful franchises The Last Airbender and The Sorcerer’s Apprentice are all on the way, amongst 3 more sequels, 2 remakes, Chris Nolan, Julia Roberts, Sly Stallone, and a Will Ferrell/Adam McKay comedy.

Too many sequels. Not enough sequels. Oy.

Fortunately LA Times “The Big Picture” blogger Patrick Goldstein sheds some light instead of heat with this column:

So why the cold shoulder from audiences? This is the time of year when all we hear about are the remakes and sequels and rebooted franchises coming off the studio assembly lines. But the real problem with this summer’s box office is that it hasn’t spawned a really good original movie, since it’s the original movies — like last year’s “The Hangover,” “Up” and “The Proposal” — that bring a broader swath of eager new moviegoers into the theaters [emphasis added]. In fact, the movies from the first week of June in 2009 and 2008 that would’ve finished ahead of “Shrek” were all original films — “Up” and “The Hangover” from 2009, “Kung Fu Panda” and “You Don’t Mess With the Zohan” from 2008.

Ask any box-office expert: If all you had were sequels and remakes, you could pretty easily chart the flow of moviegoers into the theaters. Even though some films would over-perform and some would fail to meet expectations, the end results would be pretty predictable. It’s the original films that are the wild cards. Year after year, from “Star Wars” to “The Blair Witch Project,” from “The Sixth Sense” to “The Passion of the Christ,” from “The Matrix” to “Twilight,” they are the surprise hits that really drive the business.

Original movies create a palpable sense of verve and excitement that not only propel themselves to box office glory, but expand the audience for films that follow in their wake. A strikingly original film — and there is no better example than “Avatar,” which almost singlehandedly launched the 3-D revolution earlier this year — works its magic by injecting good vibes into our moviegoing collective subconscious. Whether its a groundbreaker like “Avatar” or simply a feel-good surprise like “The Blind Side,” the buzz generated by an original film can essentially persuade reluctant moviegoers to make an extra trip to the multiplex instead of staying home and watching TV.

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So why the cold shoulder from audiences? This is the time of year when all we hear about are the remakes and sequels and rebooted franchises coming off the studio assembly lines. But the real problem with this summer’s box office is that it hasn’t spawned a really good original movie, since it’s the original movies — like last year’s “The Hangover,” “Up” and “The Proposal” — that bring a broader swath of eager new moviegoers into the theaters. In fact, the movies from the first week of June in 2009 and 2008 that would’ve finished ahead of “Shrek” were all original films — “Up” and “The Hangover” from 2009, “Kung Fu Panda” and “You Don’t Mess With the Zohan” from 2008.

Ask any box-office expert: If all you had were sequels and remakes, you could pretty easily chart the flow of moviegoers into the theaters. Even though some films would over-perform and some would fail to meet expectations, the end results would be pretty predictable. It’s the original films that are the wild cards. Year after year, from “Star Wars” to “The Blair Witch Project,” from “The Sixth Sense” to “The Passion of the Christ,” from “The Matrix” to “Twilight,” they are the surprise hits that really drive the business.

Original movies create a palpable sense of verve and excitement that not only propel themselves to box office glory, but expand the audience for films that follow in their wake. A strikingly original film — and there is no better example than “Avatar,” which almost singlehandedly launched the 3-D revolution earlier this year — works its magic by injecting good vibes into our moviegoing collective subconscious. Whether its a groundbreaker like “Avatar” or simply a feel-good surprise like “The Blind Side,” the buzz generated by an original film can essentially persuade reluctant moviegoers to make an extra trip to the multiplex instead of staying home and watching TV.

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But what really counts here isn’t so much sticker shock as the shock of the new. Even in the summer, when we’re accustomed to expect a never-ending deluge of reworked ideas and retro-fitted story lines, it turns out that it’s the movie that delivers something startlingly new that reminds audiences why they started going to the movies in the first place.

I’m tempted to just go, “What he said,” but there’s one small problem with the thesis per last summer and it’s called Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen which did $402M domestic and another $434M international.

But because I have so much respect for Goldstein, a longtime favorite observer of the movie business, and because I’m pumped to see Inception, quite interested in seeing Knight & Day, and absolutely looking forward to Dinner for Schmucks, I can live with the thesis that what Hwood needs is more original movies.

Besides it’s much easier to get motivated to write a spec script with that frame of mind, isn’t it?

5 thoughts on “Patrick Goldstein: "Why does Hollywood’s heat of the summer box office feel so ice cold?"

  1. Y'know Scott I've kinda' come to terms with the whole TRANSFORMERS 2 thing… and why such a heinous goiter of a movie raked in enough cash to fill the Large Hadron Collider.

    Because common logic dictates word of mouth ("that new Transformers movie sucked so bad I had a full body hickey after!") would have effectively torpedoed its grosses.

    But you know… the HOPE of seeing multiple 'bots pound the shit out of each other possibly being cool? How could anyone resist? You saw it. I saw it. We contributed to that golden head of lettuce delivered to Paramount/Dreamworks' front gate. Even after hearing from noted critics that the thing was insufferable? We went.

    And when Transformers 3 comes down the pike (soon, children, soon), will we rebel with our wallets and stay away in droves, the voices of Optimus Prime and Sam Witwicky drowned out by a sea of trilling crickets?

    I think not.

  2. I just read that article too. In fact, linked it to a friend who emailed me about sales being down for original material and producers and distributors solely seeking "pre-sold" franchises.

    As for TRANSFORMERS 2 — I don't think it violates his theory at all. He mentions that there will always be these franchise tentpole blockbusters. Exactly for the reason you sited, Scott — it grossed 400+ mil.

    However, what is needed is relief from them. There needs to be choice in the marketplace. And currently there is none.

    He also mentions one of the biggest movies of this summer is likely to be Chris Nolan's INCEPTION. I know it's the one I'm looking forward to. I'm skeptical whether or not it will be a good movie — but I don't really care. I just want to see something fresh and new. And it definitely looks to be that.

    DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS looks great too. I really hope they don't tack on a sappy ending. That's about the only place I could see it falling flat.

    As for "originality," you should turn your eyes to television for the next year or two. As advertisers are currently seeking new avenues to promote their product(s), it is VERY interesting to see cable pushing hard into original material while the networks seem to be answering with formula.

    In a season or two, we may very may well see the advertising dollar shift to cable — which will be catastrophic for network television (if not an unrecoverable oversight).

    Anyway you look at it, there will be a big demand for original content in the near future.

  3. Goldstein makes some great points, especially the idea of original/non-sequels exciting moviegoers to the theater.

    I also can't remember a Memorial Day weekend with two films so poorly reviewed (SexInTheCity2 and Prince of Persia) and so narrowly marketed. These aren't big comedies that have a wide appeal (The Hangover) OR a quality action sequel (like Iron Man2).

    Why are the studios surprised at the poor box office when they are releasing sub-standard product on the biggest weekend of the year? Sequels or not, these are not good films…

  4. For me it isn't the movies being shown or not shown that keeps me from the box office (theaters), it is the crappy toxic food and drink one is forced to eat there. Okay in autumn and winter I can sneak it into the theater, but not so easy in summer. In contract I can stay home and eat and drink what I want, watch blu ray and instant play HD movies on Netflix, on a giant TV, and cheaper at that. I would see a movie at least twice a month in a theater if they would allow me to buy healthy food and beverages, or bring my own (like Canada, Australia, and other countries allow).

  5. Well, in defense of Micael Bay – if that's possible – I thought TFII was a GREAT WAR MOVIE with robots.

    I guess a lot of the flak from MudFlap and Skids may have hurt a bit but I'd rather see that kind of nonsense in a movie than the streets.

    I've always thought that you can't get a person excited about the circus once they've seen it unless you bring in – taa-daa – a new act.

    Most movies have nothing original or exciting (I don't mean explosions).

    It's true that movies cost a lot and the risk is great but someone has to write the script for pre-branded properties. If people hated Battleship, umm they won't go. If they've never heard of Jonah Hex, they may stay away.

    SOmetimes people want the same feel which may explain why the A Team is taking it on the chin from Mr.T et al.

    I'd rather risk my money on something new so that it can build out. Maybe movies should be more like TV and start spinning off characters.

    I can think of several supporting actors that would make for a good story – based on the original character.

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